McCarthy vill stänga ner igen – fast det inte funkar: ”Korkat”

Speaker Kevin McCarthy has little power to avoid a stalemate, which could provide voters a fresh reminder of GOP-induced chaos and dysfunction.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s short, rocky tenure leading the Republican conference is headed for more turbulence. Hardline conservatives have revolted against his latest effort to pass a short-term spending bill, leaving House Republicans barreling toward another government shutdown at the end of the month.

It would be the 11th shutdown since 1980.

As in the past, the logic of shutting down the federal government is clear, if not compelling: The Republican instigators believe that the public will rally behind them and force Democrats and moderate Republicans to slash spending, enacting the cuts they have conspicuously failed to achieve through ordinary channels. “We’re going to have a shutdown,” Republican Representative Ralph Norman of South Carolina predicted on Sept. 14. “We believe in what we’re doing. The jury will be the country.”

What’s also clear is the record of shutdowns in bringing about the outcome their proponents desire: It’s 0-for-10—and, if Republicans don’t settle on a funding bill by Sept. 30, will likely soon be 0-for-11.

McCarthy’s proposal was itself a sign of how badly the political process is breaking down. It called for cutting domestic agencies’ budgets by 8% and imposing a flurry of immigration restrictions, including reviving construction of former President Donald Trump’s border wall—policies with no chance of being agreed to by a Democratic Senate and president. But even this unrealistic package was deemed insufficient by Republican hardliners such as Representative Victoria Spartz of Indiana, who pilloried McCarthy as “a weak Speaker” too gutless to insist on even more.

Representative Matt Rosendale of Montana trashed the proposal as “a continuation of Nancy Pelosi’s budget and Joe Biden’s policies,” while Representative Dan Bishop of North Carolina took to X, the site formerly known as Twitter, to demand: “Roll back the crazy bureaucracy to pre-COVID levels. Now.” With a narrow majority, McCarthy can afford only four defections. By Sept. 19, there appeared to be at least 15.

That a sizable contingent of House Republicans is threatening a shutdown despite the tactic’s long record of failure is testimony to how thoroughly intraparty politics have become disconnected from public sentiment and political reality. A quick review:

• In 2013, Republicans forced a shutdown to try to pressure Democrats to repeal the Affordable Care Act. It lasted 16 days, GOP support cratered, and Obamacare survived and became more popular than ever.
• In 2018, Democrats took a turn and blocked government funding to force an extension of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals immigration policy. Public opinion moved against them and they folded after three short days, prompting Trump to claim a “big win.”
• In 2019, Trump and Republicans engineered the longest shutdown in US history—35 days—to force Democrats to fund Trump’s border wall. Once again, public sentiment swiftly turned against the instigators, eventually prompting Trump to cave on what Democratic Senator Jon Tester of Montana called “the most stupid shutdown I have ever seen in my life.”

To this, conservative Republicans say: “Hold my beer.” McCarthy had hoped to placate his unruly right flank and avoid a rebellion by reversing his earlier opposition and starting an impeachment inquiry on President Joe Biden. But that hasn’t allayed demands for still deeper spending cuts or threats to oust McCarthy from the speakership if he doesn’t magically deliver them. “Real leadership takes courage and willingness to fight for the country, not for power and a picture on the wall,” Spartz huffed.

Given that McCarthy has no power to compel Democrats to agree to deep cuts, much less support Trump’s prized border wall, what’s likely to ensue is a shutdown—followed, in relatively short order, by a negotiation in the Senate between a more moderate strain of Republican and its Democratic counterparts. The eventual agreement is certain to be more modest than anything under consideration in the House. And if history is any guide, a weakened GOP will also be saddled with a public backlash. “This is such a dumb fight because there’s no principle that we’re standing on here,” says Alex Conant, a Republican strategist. “It’s just bad tactics.”

What’s even more frustrating to Republicans hoping to avoid a government shutdown and its blowback is that this unwelcome fight is arriving at a particularly inopportune moment for the GOP. Democrats have just endured a long, difficult summer that’s seen Biden’s approval rating slide to dangerously low territory, as voters unhappy about inflation and the state of the economy have turned against him. Recent polls show a hypothetical 2024 rematch between Biden and Trump to be a dead heat, which has produced waves of panic among Democrats, as well as anxious discussions about whether Biden should oust Vice President Kamala Harris from the ticket in favor of someone more popular.

A shutdown that advertises Republican chaos and dysfunction would throw Biden and Democrats a lifeline by reminding voters of what they disliked about the Trump era and the MAGA fire-breathers who prospered during his tenure. It would yank the spotlight away from the beleaguered president and probably give Biden a welcome boost.

It would certainly be an ominous signal about Republicans’ chances of defeating Biden next November. “Biden didn’t win because of his political skills and soaring oratory,” says Conant. “He won because Republicans blew themselves up with Trump. I’m afraid we’re seeing history repeat itself with the GOP once again helping Biden by shooting themselves in the foot.”

McCarthy is an inveterate optimist who isn’t about to throw in the towel. “We’re going to work until we get this done,” he told reporters on Sept. 18. That may be so. But it’s looking increasingly likely that a shutdown, and maybe a lengthy one, will happen first.

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