Mataktierna kan bli offer för Kennedys hälsogiv
Den tillträdande hälsoministern Robert F Kennedy Jr har fått mandat att ”göra USA hälsosamt igen”. En av de första sakerna som han vill göra är att stoppa möjligheten att köpa onyttigheter med matkuponger. Det väntas pressa aktier bland tillverkare av snacks, frukostflingor och färdiga måltider, skriver Barron’s.
WK Kellogg, Kraft Heinz och Tyson Foods är några av bolagen som är i farozonen. Oatly och Beyond Meat väntas samtidigt klara sig lindrigare undan.
Barron'sRFK Jr. Wants to Limit SNAP Purchases. These Food Stocks Could Feel the Pinch Most.
Stocks in packaged-food companies have been under pressure in the past few days after President-elect Donald Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a well-known critic of Big Food’s influence on government, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.
Among the actions laid out in his “Make America Healthy Again” plan, Kennedy said he would stop allowing beneficiaries of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program to use food stamps to buy soda or processed foods that are widely considered by nutritionists to be unhealthy.
“It’s nonsensical for U.S. taxpayers to spend tens of billions of dollars subsidizing junk that harms the health of low-income Americans,” the HHS nominee wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed two months ago.
Although it’s still uncertain whether the Senate would approve Kennedy’s nomination, due to his controversial views on vaccines, fluoridated water, and more, investors are already worried that his plans could hurt the food companies for whom SNAP purchases are an important revenue source.
“We don’t think it’s unreasonable to see many manufacturers we cover facing a headwind in the event that sugary and/or more processed foods become SNAP ineligible,” wrote J.P. Morgan analyst Ken Goldman in a Monday note.
Using data from consumer-data provider Numerator and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Goldman identified companies that could be most affected by the potential changes and those that are relatively more insulated.
Post Holdings, Conagra Brands, J.M. Smucker, WK Kellogg, Tyson Foods, Lamb Weston, Kraft Heinz, and Hershey all have more than 20% of their projected sales from lower-income consumers, the analyst wrote.
When SNAP benefits are used on a basket of groceries, products from Tyson, Lamb Weston, WK Kellogg, Kraft Heinz, Conagra, and Kellanova appeared more often than others.
Companies that sell snacks, sweets, and cereals could be most at risk
If Kennedy were to realize his promises, companies that sell snacks, sweets, and cereals—typically high in sugar, salt, and other additives—could be most at risk.
On the other hand, companies that sell healthier frozen meals—such as Kraft Heinz and Conagra Brands—and those that sell packaged deli meats—such as Hormel Foods —might see some benefits if consumers shift their purchases from snacks and cereals to prepared meals, said the analyst.
Tyson and Lamb Weston products likely won’t be on Kennedy’s target list, says Goldman. The former is a producer of fresh meats, and the latter sells frozen potato products to restaurants in the U.S. and overseas markets.
Goldman also highlighted food companies that appear less at risk—those with less exposure to lower-income consumers and SNAP spending. This includes BellRing, Simply Good Foods, Beyond Meat, Hain Celestial, McCormick, and Oatly.
Simply Good Foods is a recent Barron’s stock pick .
Food retailers are generally expected to be less impacted than food manufacturers, since they sell a lot more than just packaged foods and often have alternate profit streams. Still, retailers with a higher share of lower-income consumers and SNAP users, such as dollar stores and mass merchants, could see some headwinds.
Meanwhile,Sprouts Farmers Market, a great portion of whose sales are from fresh produce, could benefit if consumers shift their purchases from packaged food to fresh fruits and vegetables, says Goldman.