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Ekonometriprofessor tippades vinna enligt bettingsajt

Harvardprofessorn Ariél Pakes, som forskat inom ekonometri och industriell organisationsteori, hade bäst chans att ta hem årets ekonomipris, enligt vadslagningen på den kryptobaserade bettingsajten Kalshi. Det visade sig dock vara helt fel.

Sannolikheten för att Pakes ska vinna skattades i vadslagningen till 20 procent. Antalet spel på den kontroversiella sajten, som beskriver sig självt som en ”förutsägelsemarknad”, är dock förhållandevis lågt.

Vadslagningen om tidigare Nobelpris har bitvis varit intensiv på Kalshi och konkurrenten Polymarket. Bland annat prickade bägge sajterna, med höga sannolikhetstal, in fredspristagaren Maria Corina Machado i slutspurten.

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Sveriges riksbanks pris i ekonomisk vetenskap till Alfred Nobels minne
Wikipedia (en)
The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, officially the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel and commonly referred to as the Nobel Prize in Economics, is an award in the field of economic sciences administered by the Nobel Foundation, established in 1968 by Swedish central bank Sveriges Riksbank to celebrate its 300th anniversary and in memory of Alfred Nobel. Although the Prize in Economic Sciences was not one of the original five Nobel Prizes established by Alfred Nobel's will, it is considered a member of the Nobel Prize system, and is administered and referred to along with the Nobel Prizes by the Nobel Foundation. Winners of the Prize in Economic Sciences are chosen in a similar manner to and announced alongside the Nobel Prize recipients, and receive the Prize in Economic Sciences at the Nobel Prize Award Ceremony. The laureates of the Prize in Economic Sciences are selected by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which also selects the laureates of the prizes in Physics and Chemistry. The Prize was first awarded in 1969 to Dutch economist Jan Tinbergen and Norwegian economist Ragnar Frisch "for having developed and applied dynamic models for the analysis of economic processes".

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