Rusning i silver – experter varnar för bakslag i februari

Silver extended its extraordinary rally Monday, topping $110 for the first time on record, amid a surge in precious-metals prices tied to fiscal concerns, inflation worries, and broader geopolitical risks.

Gold and silver prices, alongside those for copper and other metals, have powered consistently higher over the past year, with the yellow metal topping $5,000 an ounce for the first time on record earlier this year.

Silver, of course, has outperformed gold over the same time frame, thanks in part to both its link to the currency-debasement trade and its role in the buildout of artificial intelligence technologies.

Broader industrial demand has remained a key contributor to Silver’s scorching rally, which has seen the white metal rise 40% over the past month alone, adding to a year-on-year gain of around 260%.

Spot silver was rising 12% to $115.38 an ounce, amid its biggest single-day advance since 2008, while gold was holding north of $5,000 at $5,088 an ounce. Front month silver futures rose more than 14% for the day to settle at $115.08, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Earlier, the gold-silver ratio—often seen as a gauge of speculative interest as it decreases—trading at 44.09, the lowest since 2011.

“Silver’s smaller market size and dual role as both an industrial and investment metal continue to amplify price volatility,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING.

“While market conditions remain volatile, the broader backdrop remains supportive,” he added. “Geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and structural supply deficits leave both metals well positioned.”

However, recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, show some of the world’s biggest investors are reducing their silver positions—and possibly taking profits—amid the torrid market advance.

In fact, Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed overall positioning from Exchange Traded Funds and COMEX futures speculators at the lowest levels in two years, with long bets at 123 million ounces.

Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, thinks this likely leaves both retail buyers of silver coins and bars, as well as big investors from China, propping up the current gains.

He notes a massive and widening premium between silver prices in London and those in Shanghai, which has risen from effectively $0 in November to more than $14 based on current trading.

“As long as this premium remains elevated, traders and investors elsewhere are likely to feel emboldened in their belief that London and New York prices remain too low,” he said.

But it could also leave the market vulnerable to a February downturn.

Hansen argues that industrial demand—which typically accounts for around 60% of total silver consumption in a given year—could fade as producers seek cheaper alternatives in the manufacturing processes.

He also sees China’s upcoming Lunar holidays, which will close the Shanghai market for a week starting on Feb. 16, as a key calendar risk.

“With China acting as such a major and persistent source of support, attention now turns to the Lunar New Year holiday,” he said. “Should profit-taking eventually take hold, some of that pressure may start to emerge ahead of the Chinese market shutdown.”

Jordi Visser, head of research at 22V, also sees a pullback given silver’s parabolic surge over the past year. But he’s not as convinced that industrial demand will recede anytime soon.

“This is not a cyclical move in silver,” he said. “It’s not a precious metal, it’s directly related to the AI trade. And we’re at the very beginning stages of building AI factories.”

“That is why you’re seeing these parabolic moves,” he added. “We’re in a commodity bull market and where there’s shortages, you buy as much as you can particularly when they’re price insensitive for the demand,” he added.