Så påverkas jobb, företag och resor när USA stänger ner

The longer the closure lasts, the greater the hit to economic growth.

The federal government shutdown began at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday after Democrats and Republicans failed to reach a deal on a short-term spending plan.

Shutdowns can squeeze the economy in different ways, from missed paychecks for hundreds of thousands of federal employees to the delayed release of crucial economic indicators. But duration matters. The longer the closure lasts, the greater the hit to economic growth and the work of businesses that rely on the federal government’s daily functioning.

Shutting down the government comes at a delicate time for the U.S. labor market, which spent the summer stuck in a stall pattern because of slow hiring. Without government data personnel on hand, economists and investors won’t get the next big indicator on Friday, when the September jobs report is due.

Shutdowns typically hit federal employees quickly in the form of furloughs, with pay delayed until the government reopens. An important question for the economy is how many workers are on the sidelines, and for how long. The Office of Management and Budget decides which workers are “excepted” from furlough, which means they are needed for emergency or essential work but are still unpaid.

In the most recent shutdown, which spanned 34 days from the end of 2018 through the start of 2019, 340,000 employees were furloughed, according to the Government Accountability Office. But that was a partial shutdown because Congress had already passed some spending bills, which meant hundreds of thousands of employees could keep working and stay on the federal payrolls.

In this case, a shutdown this week would be more like the government closure 12 years ago, with economists estimating that upward of 800,000 employees could be furloughed. Pay would also be delayed for federal employees who remain at work, such as members of the military.

President Trump ’s administration has also threatened mass firings if funding lapses, raising the stakes for a federal workforce already hit by months of workforce reductions, restructurings and rehirings. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) said the OMB plan was an “attempt at intimidation” and questioned whether any firings would hold up in court.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it won’t release or collect any economic data during a shutdown, which means this Friday’s monthly jobs report is in doubt. The Labor Department’s monthly inflation report, which comes out in mid-October, could also be affected depending on how long a shutdown lasts.

Delays to economic reports would put the spotlight on other data releases, such as payroll processor ADP’s monthly report on private-sector employment, due out Wednesday. Weekly jobless claims, which are collected at the state level, aren’t expected to be disrupted. Federal Reserve readings, such as the monthly report on industrial production, would also continue because the Fed isn’t funded by Congress.

Postponed reports would be released after the shutdown, once they have been compiled. But data quality could suffer. This is particularly the case with the inflation report, because the people the Labor Department depends on to check prices on store shelves and elsewhere would be furloughed.

Companies that depend on the daily functioning of the government could lose business or face delays in vital approvals. During the 2013 shutdown, defense contractor Lockheed Martin furloughed 3,000 employees who worked in government facilities or relied on government inspectors to complete their work.

At the time, the federal government also stopped issuing permits for drilling on federal lands; export certifications for beer, wine, and spirits; and loans to small businesses, homeowners, and developers. Without payment, small businesses that contracted with the federal government temporarily cut staff and reduced operations.

The 2013 shutdown ultimately cut private-sector job growth by about 120,000 jobs, according to an estimate from the Council of Economic Advisers. Shutdowns can also hit the life-sciences industry through delayed grants and stalled Food and Drug Administration reviews.

Shutdowns reduce government spending and programs, depressing activity as a result. Unpaid federal workers are also less likely to spend money until their paychecks resume. Worries about airport delays or national-park closures can curb travel plans.

The 34-day partial government shutdown in 2018 and 2019 reduced annualized real gross domestic product growth by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019, the Congressional Budget Office estimated. A full shutdown could more closely mirror the effects of the 16-day 2013 funding lapse, which lowered annualized growth by as much as 0.6%, the Office of Management and Budget reported.

Economists say the economy generally makes up for any lost growth in a shutdown once the government reopens. In this case, Trump’s threats of mass federal layoffs could leave a more lasting mark by making furloughed employees nervous to spend and, potentially, reducing employment.

The travel economy could lose $1 billion every week in a shutdown, the U.S. Travel Association warned in a letter to congressional leadership last week.

Transportation Security Administration employees and air-traffic controllers will work without pay, according to plans published by the Homeland Security and Transportation departments. But prior shutdowns still caused problems: In 2019, many TSA staffers called in absent from work, closing security checkpoints and causing delays at some airports.

As of late Tuesday, the National Park Service aimed to keep roads, trails and memorials generally open, according to a new contingency plan. Parks that collect visitor fees at entrance gates will use those balances to help provide visitor services, like collecting trash and maintaining restrooms.

NPS has already lost at least 24% of its permanent staff this year because of cuts, the National Parks Conservation Association said on Sept. 23. Retired park superintendents last week urged the Interior Department to close the parks during a shutdown to prevent damage and vandalism.