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Kanadas premiärminister Justin Trudeau och utrikesminister Chrystia Freeland. (Sean Kilpatrick / TT NYHETSBYRÅN/ NTB Scanpix)

Analyser: Kan innebära slutet för nya Nafta-avtalet

Resultatet från det amerikanska mellanårsvalet innehåller få överraskningar. Men på två områden kommer utfallet att få konsekvenser, varav ett är handel, skriver Steven Pressman i en analys på Market Watch.

Enligt Pressman är det nu sannolikt att USA:s nya handelsavtal med Mexiko och Kanada, USMCA, inte kommer att godkännas av den nya kongressen. Det innebär i så fall att det gamla avtalet Nafta fortsätter att gälla, skriver han:

”I slutändan tror jag att det är bra för den amerikanska ekonomin eftersom det nya avtalet troligtvis skulle flytta jobb inom fordonsindustrin till Mexiko.”

SvD Näringslivs Mikael Törnwall skriver på samma tema att valresultatet inte får jättestora konsekvenser för den ekonomiska politiken i USA, i alla fall inte på kort sikt.

”Betydligt mer oroande är vad som händer om ekonomin vänder nedåt igen under nästa år”, skriver han i en analys.

bakgrund
 
USMCA
Wikipedia (en)
The United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA; Spanish: Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá, T-MEC; French: Accord États-Unis-Mexique-Canada, AÉUMC) is a pending free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico, and the United States. It is also referred to as "NAFTA 2.0", in order to distinguish it from its intended current predecessor North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It is the result of the 2017–2018 renegotiation of NAFTA by its member states, which informally agreed to the terms on September 30, 2018, and formally on October 1. Final ratification and implementation is pending. Compared to NAFTA, the agreement gives the U.S. more access to Canada's $19 billion dairy market, incentivizes more domestic production of cars and trucks, increases environmental and labor regulations, and introduces updated intellectual property protections.
bakgrund
 
Nafta
Wikipedia (en)
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA; Spanish: Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte, TLCAN; French: Accord de libre-échange nord-américain, ALÉNA) is an agreement signed by Canada, Mexico, and the United States, creating a trilateral trade bloc in North America. The agreement came into force on January 1, 1994. It superseded the 1988 Canada–United States Free Trade Agreement between the U.S. and Canada, and is set to be replaced by the 2018 United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement.NAFTA has two supplements: the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC) and the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation (NAALC). Most economic analyses indicate that NAFTA has been beneficial to the North American economies and the average citizen, but harmed a small minority of workers in industries exposed to trade competition. Economists hold that withdrawing from NAFTA or renegotiating NAFTA in a way that reestablishes trade barriers will adversely affect the U.S. economy and cost jobs. However, Mexico would be much more severely affected by job loss and reduction of economic growth in both the short term and long term.On September 30, 2018, it was announced that the United States, Mexico, and Canada had come to an agreement to replace NAFTA with the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). The USMCA is the result of the renegotiation of NAFTA that the member states undertook from 2017 to 2018, though NAFTA will remain in force until the USMCA is ratified by its members.

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